NCAA Football Gambling
CFL: CFL underdog winners of Week 1 square off (10:00 PM ET, TSN)
2010-07-09
Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.
Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.
British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.
In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.
First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:
• Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.
From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)
• SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.
Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.
International Bowl - NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2010-01-04
The first three editions of the International Bowl in Toronto weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois. The Bulls are a 6.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, and 87% of bettors are anticipating another rout.
South Florida is not bringing positive momentum into the contest, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their L7 games. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns an 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois. All three prior International Bowl games went OVER the total but South Florida is on a 3-1 UNDER run in bowl games and Northern Illinois has gone UNDER in its L2.
South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels has had a great year, not only throwing for 1,766 yards, but rushing for 798 yards and 21 total touchdowns. Not bad considering he wasn’t even expected to be on the field with Matt Grothe (torn ACL) entering his senior season. Northern Illinois will have its hands full with Daniels’ versatility, as there are few athletes in the Mid-American Conference that are comparable. On the other side of the ball, Northern Illinois will be unfamiliar with players of defensive end George Selvie’s skill set. Look for the Huskies’ offense to have trouble with the aggressive South Florida defense. The StatFox Game Estimator shows a huge edge on South Florida predicting a 34-19 win, and I look for the same.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Super Situation
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (40-14 since 1992.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
N ILLINOIS is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games non-conference games since 1992. The average score was N ILLINOIS 16.0, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 0*)
INTERNATIONAL BOWL Series Trend: There have been three previous International Bowl games in Toronto, matching the Big East and MAC conferences. The BCS conference has won all three games outright and leads the ATS ledger 2/1, all as a favorite of a TD or more. This year’s edition finds South Florida as the Big East rep but laying just 6.5 points. The OVER is also 3-0.
CFB: Music City Bowl - KENTUCKY vs. CLEMSON (8:30 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28
The 2009 Music City Bowl matches the same teams that played in the ‘06 game, Kentucky and Clemson. Like that game, the Tigers are again the heavy favorite, laying 7.5 points. They were upset in ‘06 though, 28-20. The Wildcats will look for an encore performance when the game kicks off at 8:30 PM ET on Sunday night. Visit the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for more key info before hitting the confirm button on your wagers.
The ’09 version of Clemson lost in the ACC title game and carries the disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth. The Tigers were 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, but just 2-3 vs. fellow bowl teams. They are looking to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in bowl games. Kentucky is 7-5 with two sizeable upset wins to its credit, against. Auburn and Georgia. The Wildcats are in this game for the fourth time in five bowl appearances, and have won three straight bowl games overall.
The underdog Wildcats roll into Nashville to rock with the Tigers. Wildcat fans will be dancing in the streets following a Kentucky outright upset on Dec. 27. Kentucky, winners of three of its last four, should have no problem downing the Tigers, who are 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites. If Clemson’s poor bowl record isn’t enough, the fact that ACC teams are 9-33 as favorites in bowl games should leave bettors with no option other than playing a hot Wildcats team. The Wildcats were 5-0 ATS this year on the road and Statfox’s FoxSheets game simulator predicts a 29-28 Kentucky upset. SEC teams are 27-11 as an underdog in all bowl games. Lastly, the underdog covers at a 64-percent clip in all bowl games that start Christmas day until the New Year.
MUSIC CITY BOWL Series Trend: With Vanderbilt’s 16-14 upset of Boston College in ’08, the SEC pushed its winning streak to 3-games (2-1 ATS) in the Music City Bowl series. This year’s game will be the 12th installment in this Nashville tradition, with underdogs (7-4 ATS) and UNDER the total (also 7-4) being the more profitable past wagers to date. This has been one of the more competitive games annually of late as well, with the last five being decided a one possession margins. Kentucky upset Clemson as an 11-point dog in the ’06 game.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
KENTUCKY is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The average score was KENTUCKY 20.9, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KENTUCKY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (42-13 since 1992.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
This game has seen an unusual amount of action coming in on the OVER side of the total. At last check on the Sportsbook BETTING TRENDS page, 88% of bets were put there.
CFB: Nebraska vs. Texas (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-12-04
The Big 12 Championship game has a recent history of blowout wins by the heavay favorite. Will the 2009 game be any different? Texas is again laying big points, 14.5 to be exact, so oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have weighed in with their opinion. Bettors seem to be following the bait…errr, lead, as over 60% are siding with the Longhorns according to the Betting Trends page.
It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of its goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.
After missing out on the BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.
The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.
Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.
Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Texas by 15, but, in “Lee Corso Fashion”, StatFox Steve says not so fast: We’ve seen it before, the Big 12 championship game becomes a big joke, as the favorite rolls. Most experts and bettors are expecting similar circumstances this year, since Nebraska is just another in the line of weaker North Division foes and Texas has already been inserted into the national title game vs. the SEC winner. I don’t see it that way though. This year’s game seems different, and it could all be about one player, DT Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska, who has the ability to control the Longhorns offense on his own. The Cornhuskers are giving up just 11 PPG, including 13.1 PPG only in league play. There is a reason the StatFox Game Estimators only project Texas to score in the mid-20’s. If so, it will be tough to cover this 2-TD spread. Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by a field goal or less. I like the matchup. Texas may win, but beating the number is a different story.
CFB: LSU at Mississippi (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
2009-11-20
While LSU and Mississippi are no longer in the race for the SEC title, they will be playing for bowl positioning, making this an intriguing SEC matchup. Ole Miss is playing some of its best football of the season and comes in as a 4-point favorite. Read on for a preview of this game plus a Best Bet writeup from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Then head over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and GAME MATCHUP page on Sportsbook.com for more late breaking info.
This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in SEC games off a non-conference tilt.
This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and the Rebels would like to put away previous disappointments. This would be the ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him a reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.
Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.
StatFox Steve has this to say about the game: The 2009 season might go down as a disappointment in Starkville, but the Rebels are coming on of late, particularly at home, where they have won four straight games, all by double-digit margins. Their season-long statistics of 6.0 yards per play on offense and 4.7 allowed on defense are certainly not disappointing. Meanwhile, LSU is still being outgained by opponents and is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. In last year’s meeting in Baton Rouge, Ole Miss won 31-13, holding the Tigers to 37 yards rushing. With stud RB Charles Scott out for the season now, LSU will be fortunate to do better this year. Play: Ole Miss -4
CFB: Ohio U at Buffalo (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2009-11-12
It’s a weeknight in November, which must mean it’s time for Mid-American Conference Football. The league has enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2009 with better quality football. Central Michigan knocked off Michigan State and Northern Illinois punted Purdue among fine showings. This week several more MAC games will be televised as teams compete to determine who plays in the league’s championship game.
This is Ohio U’s last road game of the season and it has intentions of staying right where they are in the MAC East standings, hoping to setup all important matchup with Temple in last contest of the year. The Bobcats (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are 4-1 in conference action and trail the Owls who have yet to lose. Before then, the Bobcats have to avoid what almost befell them at Ball State, escaping with 20-17 win as 5.5-point favorites.
Ohio U. has been road warriors with 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. They hope that continue, since the last several years have been contrary to that information, being 8-13 and 6-15 ATS on the November road. The Bobcats offense is now more of a spread with “pistol” elements and as expected growing pain has been part of the process. They’ve averaged 315 yards against teams that allow 376 per game. Their biggest problems have been in the red zone, with a youthful offensive line and no true power backs.
Defensively, Ohio U has been strong, forcing 27 turnovers and giving the offense continual chances. Off their win at Ball State, they are 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last three seasons.
Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) is off painful last minute loss to Bowling Green 30-29 last Tuesday and is running out of reasons to stay motivated.
“It’s a tough loss, tough for our football team,” Buffalo coach Turner Gill said. “That’s why you have to play four quarters. We didn’t know how to finish the football game. Bowling Green did a good job and finished the football game.” After being MAC champions a season ago, the best Buffalo can hope for is .500 record if they win out.
The Bulls have gone thru a number of running backs this season due to injury and Jeffvon Gill, no relation to Buffalo’s coach, rushed for 172 last week against the Falcons in a relief role. The Bulls played mistake free football as week ago, yet is only 8-19 ATS in home games after a contest where they committed one or less turnovers.
Sportsbook.com has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites with total of 45.The Bulls are 5-4 and 6-3 ATS in last nine meetings and have never been favored in 10 previous games vs. Ohio U until today. Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 OVER against teams with winning records. Ohio U. is 3-11-1 ATS as underdog of three or less points since 1997 and is 7-1 OVER in that role.
ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern live from University of Buffalo Stadium.
StatFox Power Line – Buffalo by 5